The former vice president’s spending and tax claims are credible; Trump’s aren’t

A substantive policy discussion in debate on Tuesday, Thanks to Donald Trump’s shouting and nonstop lying.But there have been some broad — and unsurprisingly, false — assertions about policy . Joe Biden claimed that his tax and spending plans would create many jobs and promote economic progress . Trump claimed that they can destroy the economy.Well, everything we all know suggests that Biden was right and Trump wrong. And I’m not the sole one saying this. Nonpartisan analysts like Moody’s Analytics and the not-exactly-socialist economists at Goldman Sachs are remarkably high on Biden’s proposals.There’s a widespread perception that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the economy. But that’s not in the least what the record says.Yes, Ronald Reagan presided over a long economic expansion; but so did Bill Clinton, and the Clinton boom was both longer and bigger. The economy did in fact add many jobs under Trump before the coronavirus struck, but this simply represented the continuation of an expansion that began under Barack Obama.

Republicans even have an extended history of claiming that progressive policies would cause economic disaster. They’ve been wrong whenever . They’ve been wrong about tax hikes: When Clinton raised taxes in 1993, Republicans confidently predicted recession, but what actually happened was an enormous boom. When California raised taxes under Jerry Brown, the proper called it “economic suicide”; again, the economy boomed.They’ve also been wrong about social programs. Obamacare, the G.O.P. insisted, would destroy many jobs. Only a few attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act was actually called the “Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act.” Yet within the six years after January 2014, when the act went into full effect, the economy added almost 15 million jobs.

And let’s not forget the flip side, the many, repeatedly Republicans promised that cutting taxes on the rich would produce an economic miracle, promises that never came true. There’s a reason conservatives still continue and on about the Reagan boom, all those years ago; it’s the sole example they need that even seems to support their economic ideology. (It doesn’t, but that’s another topic.When Moody’s ran this program through their model, it concluded that by the top of 2024, real gross domestic product would be 4.5 percent above under a continuation of Trump’s policies, translating into a further 7 million jobs. Goldman Sachs estimates are similar: a 3.7 percent gain in G.D.P.But if you’re trying to assess the candidates’ economic claims, you ought to know that Trump’s predictions of a Biden bust lack credibility, not simply because Trump lies about everything, but because Republicans always predict disaster from progressive policy, and haven't yet been right and you should also know that Biden’s assertions that his plan would give the economy a big boost are well grounded in mainstream economics and supported by independent, nonpartisan analysis. So Biden’s economic claims are, in fact, credible; Trump’s aren’t.

Dr. Dhillon Randeep

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